The trucking industry in 2025 is undergoing major changes due to purposeful fleet downsizing, fluctuating Class 8 truck orders, and rising costs from steel and aluminum tariffs. Additionally, newer strategies like truck driving lease purchase programs are being implemented to adapt to these evolving market challenges. Williams Logistics—and carriers nationwide—are recalibrating for a new market reality shaped by weak freight demand and elevated equipment costs.
Fleet Reductions: Rebalancing the Market
Carriers in the U.S. aggressively trimmed their fleets by an average of 2.2% in 2024 to manage utilization and maintain profitability in a soft market. Major carriers such as Heartland Express and Marten Transport reported intentional cuts, focusing on dropping underperforming lanes and redeploying assets for higher driver productivity and margin control. Heartland Express targeted “underperforming lanes,” while Marten reduced tractors from 3,126 to 2,928 and trailers from 5,539 to 5,164 between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025. Covenant’s story is more nuanced—the company scaled back its expedited segment while increasing truckload and dedicated fleets.
These actions reflect a consistent industry strategy: shrink capacity to align with current freight volumes, protect margins, and ride out soft market conditions. According to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, fleet cuts are now key drivers of modest improvements in freight rates, not surges in demand.
Class 8 Truck Orders Reflect Industry Caution
Industry experts and carrier CEOs point to Class 8 truck orders as a barometer for future capacity. Orders were down 7% year-over-year, underscoring fleets’ reluctance to invest in new equipment amidst tariff uncertainty and sluggish freight demand. As Covenant CEO David Parker explains, “Nobody is buying a bunch of trucks, and it’s just a matter of time... we will start seeing capacity really starting to tighten.”
For Williams Logistics, monitoring Class 8 truck orders helps anticipate when supply and demand may finally rebalance—potentially as soon as October, when analysts expect noticeable tightening in available trucks.
Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: Raising Equipment Costs
A major market disruptor for 2025 is the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs to include dry van trailers and other goods trailers. The new tariffs—affecting trailers once shielded by the USMCA—add a minimum 11.5% duty, with the true impact likely between 15% and 20% once components are included.
Jason Miller of Michigan State University notes that steel and aluminum account for up to 35% of a trailer’s value, amplifying the effect of tariffs. Combined with domestic trailer prices that are 44% above pre-COVID levels and aluminum costs rising over 10% from January, fleet buyers now face historically expensive replacements. Dan Moyer from FTR sees “a nasty combination” forcing fleets to extend trailer life or reduce capacity—even as maintenance and reliability risks climb with aging equipment.
The Appeal of Truck Driving Lease Purchase Programs
As outright truck and trailer purchases become less economically feasible, truck driving lease purchase agreements may become more attractive. Leasing offers fleets and owner-operators flexibility, predictability, and the ability to conserve cash while avoiding steep upfront investments. Moyer highlights leasing as a practical option amid rising equipment costs, helping fleets maintain operational capacity without overspending.